In a new study published this month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, MIT researchers report that global action on reducing mercury emissions will lead to twice the economic benefits for the U.S., compared with domestic action, by 2050. However, those in the U.S. who consume locally caught freshwater fish, rather than seafood from the global market, will benefit more from domestic rather than international mercury regulations.
Overall, while both policies are projected to lead to roughly the same amount of reductions in mercury deposited on U.S. soil compared to a no-policy case, Americans' intake of mercury by 2050 are estimated to be 91 percent lower under the global treaty, compared to 32 percent under U.S. policy alone. The researchers say these numbers reflect the U.S. commercial fish market, 90 percent of which is sourced from Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins -- regions that are heavily influenced by emissions from non-U.S. sources, including China.
Based on these calculations, the team estimated that by 2050, emissions reductions under the Minamata Convention on Mercury would lead to $339 billion in lifetime benefits and $104 billion in economy-wide benefits in the U.S., compared to $147 billion and $43 billion, respectively, from MATS. The global treaty, then, should lead to more than twice the benefits projected from the domestic policy.
Another study from the US suggests that the benefits of existing pollution controls in the US may be underestimated, since these provide a substantial side benefit. The authors concluded that mercury emission from coal-fired power plants have been reduced as a co-benefit from controls designed to limit sulphur and nitrogen emissions. The reaction that controls nitrogen oxide emissions also oxidizes mercury, while the controls that target sulfur emissions also remove oxidized mercury from the exhaust stream.
The sulfur controls appear to be key to the global trends. China went from having essentially none to having them installed on 86 percent of its coal plants in less than a decade. This meant that mercury emissions probably grew at half the rate of the increase in coal use. Japan more than doubled the plants with these controls over a 15-year period (to 70 percent); Europe's use of the technology increased at a similar pace.
Overall, the authors estimate that emissions of elemental mercurythe form that stays in the atmosphere for long time and therefore spreads globallyhas declined by 30 percent over the 20 years ending in 2010. Globally, the emissions of oxidized mercury are up, but only by about nine percent. Since that doesn't spread widely, this increase will primarily impact the countries where coal use has gone up, such as India and China.
And what about Europe ?
According to a study by the Institute for Ecology and Politics (Ökopol) commissioned by the Green Party fraction represented in the German Parliament, Germany is under the top pollutants with respect to mercury emissions in Europe. The study says that coal-fired power plants, which are still responsible for 40 percent of Germany's electricity supply, emit more than 7 tons of mercury each year. The 16 lignite or brown coal plants in Germany are especially bad offenders. Using the state-of-the art technology already in use in the US, "85 percent of mercury emissions could have been prevented", Christian Tebert, the author of the Ökopol study, wrote. While stricter rules are planned for 2019, Germany's limits would still be more than double those in the US.
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